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Malmo FF vs Halmstad Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 13:00

Malmo FF

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Halmstad

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+10.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.0%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.3%1-110.0%1-25.4%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.1%3-16.6%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-15.2%4+-22.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 67.6% 1.48 -21.7%

Draw 22.3% 23.8% 4.20 -3.8%

Away win 24.7% 16.1% 6.20 +31.9%

Over 2.5 63.4% 57.1% 1.75 +10.9%

Over 3.5 39.5% 35.1% 2.85 +12.6%

BTTS 61.0% 55.6% 1.80 +9.8%

Home O1.5 59.1% 64.5% 1.55 -8.4%

Away O1.5 29.2% 25.3% 3.95 +9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.0%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malmo FF2.0

Halmstad1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MALMO FF · PPG 0.75

HALMSTAD · PPG 0.25

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.75) > Away POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Malmo FF (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -21.7%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.8%

Halmstad (A) 24.7%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +31.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Malmo FF face Halmstad in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malmo FF a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Halmstad 25%, so Malmo FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Malmo FF and 1.1 for Halmstad (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malmo FF are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.25 for Halmstad. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.9%. This match finished 5-2.

Malmo FF vs Halmstad Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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