Today / Sweden - Allsvenskan / Kalmar vs Orgryte

Kalmar vs Orgryte Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 12:00

Kalmar

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orgryte

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.5%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.3%1-18.1%1-23.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-19.5%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.4%3-17.3%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-17.4%4+-22.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.1% 66.7% 1.50 -8.3%

Draw 20.4% 23.1% 4.33 -7.0%

Away win 18.4% 16.7% 6.00 +6.2%

Over 2.5 60.9% 59.9% 1.67 +1.7%

Over 3.5 37.1% 37.7% 2.65 -1.7%

BTTS 52.8% 57.8% 1.73 -8.7%

Home O1.5 61.2% 65.4% 1.53 -6.4%

Away O1.5 22.5% 27.0% 3.70 -10.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.8%

H 61% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 3–0 9.4%

#4 1–1 8.1%

#5 1–0 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kalmar2.3

Orgryte0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KALMAR · PPG 2.00

ORGRYTE · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=61.1%

Win probability 1X2

Kalmar (H) 61.1%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -8.3%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -7.0%

Orgryte (A) 18.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kalmar face Orgryte in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kalmar a 61% chance, the draw 20% and Orgryte 18%, so Kalmar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Kalmar and 0.8 for Orgryte (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kalmar are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Orgryte. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.6%.

Kalmar vs Orgryte Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Allsvenskan Predictions