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Degerfors vs Malmo FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 13:00

Degerfors

PPG 0.83 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Malmo FF

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+19.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-16.3%0-25.7%0-33.4%0-4+2.3%1 1-05.4%1-19.8%1-28.8%1-35.3%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.2%2-17.6%2-26.8%2-34.1%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.2%3-13.9%3-23.5%3-32.1%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 32.3% 3.10 +11.0%

Draw 22.0% 29.4% 3.40 -15.1%

Away win 42.2% 45.5% 2.20 -7.2%

Over 2.5 64.8% 54.1% 1.85 +19.9%

Over 3.5 42.3% 32.3% 3.10 +31.1%

BTTS 63.3% 61.7% 1.62 +2.5%

Home O1.5 43.2% 38.5% 2.60 +12.3%

Away O1.5 49.8% 48.8% 2.05 +2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.3%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Degerfors1.5

Malmo FF1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DEGERFORS · PPG 0.83

MALMO FF · PPG 1.40

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs Home POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Degerfors (H) 35.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +11.0%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -15.1%

Malmo FF (A) 42.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -7.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Degerfors face Malmo FF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Degerfors a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Malmo FF 42%, so Malmo FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Degerfors and 1.8 for Malmo FF (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Degerfors are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.40 for Malmo FF. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +31.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Degerfors vs Malmo FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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