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Sirius vs Mjallby Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 11 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 17:00

Sirius

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLL

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Mjallby

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.8%0-22.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.2%1-19.8%1-24.7%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.0%3-16.7%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-15.4%4+-22.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.5% 61.0% 1.64 -5.7%

Draw 22.4% 25.6% 3.90 -7.6%

Away win 20.1% 20.0% 5.00 +0.3%

Over 2.5 60.9% 59.9% 1.67 +1.7%

Over 3.5 37.1% 37.7% 2.65 -1.7%

BTTS 55.6% 61.7% 1.62 -9.9%

Home O1.5 55.6% 61.7% 1.62 -9.9%

Away O1.5 30.8% 31.3% 3.20 -1.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.6%

H 57% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 3–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sirius2.0

Mjallby1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SIRIUS · PPG 3.00

MJALLBY · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=57.5%

Win probability 1X2

Sirius (H) 57.5%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -5.7%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.6%

Mjallby (A) 20.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sirius face Mjallby in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sirius a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Mjallby 20%, so Sirius are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Sirius and 1.0 for Mjallby (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sirius are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Mjallby. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.7%. This match finished 4-4.

Sirius vs Mjallby Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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