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IFK Goteborg vs AIK Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 12:00

IFK Goteborg

PPG 0.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

AIK

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-19.1%0-27.0%0-33.6%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.5%1-111.7%1-29.1%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.9%2-17.5%2-25.8%2-33.0%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.1%3-13.2%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 46.5% 2.15 -22.6%

Draw 25.2% 27.8% 3.60 -5.6%

Away win 38.8% 33.3% 3.00 +16.4%

Over 2.5 60.9% 57.1% 1.75 +6.6%

Over 3.5 37.1% 35.1% 2.85 +5.7%

BTTS 60.0% 63.7% 1.57 -5.8%

Home O1.5 42.8% 51.3% 1.95 -16.5%

Away O1.5 49.8% 41.7% 2.40 +19.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.0%

A 39% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–0 5.8%

#4 2–1 7.5%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Goteborg1.3

AIK1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK GOTEBORG · PPG 0.50

AIK · PPG 1.20

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.20) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

IFK Goteborg (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.6%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.6%

AIK (A) 38.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +16.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Goteborg face AIK in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Goteborg a 36% chance, the draw 25% and AIK 39%, so AIK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for IFK Goteborg and 1.6 for AIK (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Goteborg are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.20 for AIK. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +19.5%.

IFK Goteborg vs AIK Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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