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Vasteras vs IFK Goteborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 12:00

Vasteras

PPG 0.75 · HOME

4 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

IFK Goteborg

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 43.5% — a clear edge.

+38.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-14.8%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.8%1-19.7%1-24.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.5%3-16.7%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-15.5%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 39.2% 2.55 +43.3%

Draw 22.6% 29.0% 3.45 -13.2%

Away win 21.1% 39.2% 2.55 -27.7%

Over 2.5 60.1% 54.1% 1.85 +11.2%

Over 3.5 36.2% 32.3% 3.10 +12.2%

BTTS 54.1% 61.7% 1.62 -12.4%

Home O1.5 60.4% 43.5% 2.30 +38.9%

Away O1.5 22.6% 43.5% 2.30 -28.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 10.2%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-5

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.1%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasteras2.0

IFK Goteborg0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VASTERAS · PPG 0.75

IFK GOTEBORG · PPG 0.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Vasteras (H) 56.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +43.3%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.2%

IFK Goteborg (A) 21.1%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasteras face IFK Goteborg in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasteras a 56% chance, the draw 23% and IFK Goteborg 21%, so Vasteras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Vasteras and 0.9 for IFK Goteborg (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasteras are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.50 for IFK Goteborg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +65.9%. This match finished 4-5.

Vasteras vs IFK Goteborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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