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Degerfors vs Brommapojkarna Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 10 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 12:00

Degerfors

PPG 0.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Brommapojkarna

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-19.7%0-27.5%0-33.8%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.7%1-111.9%1-29.1%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.7%2-17.3%2-25.6%2-32.9%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.9%3-13.0%3-22.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 42.9% 2.33 -25.9%

Draw 25.1% 30.8% 3.25 -11.1%

Away win 43.1% 33.3% 3.00 +29.3%

Over 2.5 54.5% 50.0% 2.00 +9.0%

Over 3.5 32.2% 28.2% 3.55 +14.3%

BTTS 55.3% 57.8% 1.73 -4.3%

Home O1.5 34.6% 43.5% 2.30 -20.4%

Away O1.5 45.5% 36.4% 2.75 +25.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.3%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.3%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Degerfors1.2

Brommapojkarna1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DEGERFORS · PPG 0.80

BROMMAPOJKARNA · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

57%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.67) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Degerfors (H) 31.8%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -25.9%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.1%

Brommapojkarna (A) 43.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +29.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Degerfors face Brommapojkarna in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Degerfors a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Brommapojkarna 43%, so Brommapojkarna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Degerfors and 1.5 for Brommapojkarna (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Degerfors are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.67 for Brommapojkarna. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +29.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Degerfors vs Brommapojkarna Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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