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Ypiranga vs Paysandu Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 14:00

Ypiranga

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Paysandu

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-19.0%0-25.8%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.6%1-112.3%1-28.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-18.5%2-25.5%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.0%3-13.9%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 44.4% 2.25 -1.5%

Draw 26.6% 31.3% 3.20 -8.9%

Away win 29.6% 33.9% 2.95 -7.6%

Over 2.5 52.7% 51.8% 1.93 +1.7%

Over 3.5 30.8% 30.3% 3.30 +1.6%

BTTS 55.6% 58.8% 1.70 -5.5%

Home O1.5 42.8% 46.5% 2.15 -8.0%

Away O1.5 39.8% 38.2% 2.62 +4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -57.7%

Bet Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.6%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 6.9%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 1–2 8.0%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ypiranga1.4

Paysandu1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

YPIRANGA · PPG 1.50

PAYSANDU · PPG 1.80

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Ypiranga (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -1.5%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.9%

Paysandu (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ypiranga face Paysandu in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ypiranga a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Paysandu 30%, so Ypiranga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ypiranga and 1.3 for Paysandu (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ypiranga are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.80 for Paysandu. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +4.3%.

Ypiranga vs Paysandu Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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