Today / Brazil - Serie C / Maringa vs Volta Redonda

Maringa vs Volta Redonda Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 22:00

Maringa

PPG 1.33 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Volta Redonda

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-18.5%0-24.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.7%1-112.4%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.1%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.2%3-14.4%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 57.8% 1.73 -21.5%

Draw 26.9% 27.4% 3.65 -1.1%

Away win 27.7% 24.4% 4.10 +8.1%

Over 2.5 49.7% 54.1% 1.85 -8.1%

Over 3.5 28.8% 31.3% 3.20 -4.7%

BTTS 52.8% 55.6% 1.80 -5.0%

Home O1.5 43.2% 55.6% 1.80 -22.2%

Away O1.5 35.9% 30.3% 3.30 +18.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -57.7%

Bet Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.8%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maringa1.5

Volta Redonda1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MARINGA · PPG 1.33

VOLTA REDONDA · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Maringa (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -21.5%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -1.1%

Volta Redonda (A) 27.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maringa face Volta Redonda in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maringa a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Volta Redonda 28%, so Maringa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Maringa and 1.1 for Volta Redonda (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maringa are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.60 for Volta Redonda. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 4-0.

Maringa vs Volta Redonda Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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