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Guarani vs Floresta Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 23:30

Guarani

PPG 2.17 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Floresta

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-17.0%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.9%1-111.5%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.4%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.2%3-15.2%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 67.6% 1.48 -22.9%

Draw 24.6% 26.7% 3.75 -4.7%

Away win 23.3% 16.0% 6.25 +27.4%

Over 2.5 49.7% 51.8% 1.93 -4.1%

Over 3.5 28.8% 30.3% 3.30 -3.0%

BTTS 52.8% 51.3% 1.95 +3.0%

Home O1.5 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Away O1.5 22.5% 22.2% 4.50 +0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -57.7%

Bet Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.8%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 0–0✓ 8.4%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guarani1.6

Floresta0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GUARANI · PPG 2.17

FLORESTA · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.17) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Guarani (H) 52.1%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -22.9%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.7%

Floresta (A) 23.3%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guarani face Floresta in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guarani a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Floresta 23%, so Guarani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Guarani and 0.8 for Floresta (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guarani are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.40 for Floresta. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Guarani vs Floresta Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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