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Caxias vs Anapolis Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 12 ·Tuesday, June 30, 2026, 22:30

Caxias

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Anapolis

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.3%0-18.8%0-22.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.3%1-110.7%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-16.5%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.5%3-12.6%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 66.7% 1.50 -25.0%

Draw 29.7% 28.6% 3.50 +2.4%

Away win 20.3% 15.2% 6.60 +20.4%

Over 2.5 34.9% 46.5% 2.15 -25.0%

Over 3.5 18.0% 25.6% 3.90 -17.9%

BTTS 44.6% 46.5% 2.15 -4.1%

Home O1.5 40.0% 55.6% 1.80 -28.0%

Away O1.5 18.0% 19.0% 5.25 -3.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -52.1%

Bet Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.6%

H 50% / xG 1.2-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.3%

#2 0–0 18.3%

#3 2–0 13.5%

#4 1–1 10.7%

#5 0–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caxias1.2

Anapolis0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CAXIAS · PPG 2.60

ANAPOLIS · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Caxias (H) 50.0%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -25.0%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +2.4%

Anapolis (A) 20.3%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV +20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caxias face Anapolis in Brazil - Serie C on Tuesday, June 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caxias a 50% chance, the draw 30% and Anapolis 20%, so Caxias are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Caxias and 0.5 for Anapolis (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caxias are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.00 for Anapolis. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.4%.

Caxias vs Anapolis Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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