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Botafogo PB vs Brusque Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 12 ·Tuesday, June 30, 2026, 23:30

Botafogo PB

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brusque

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-112.2%0-27.9%0-33.4%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.1%1-113.0%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.3%2-16.9%2-24.5%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.9%3-12.5%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 48.8% 2.05 -25.2%

Draw 27.7% 33.3% 3.00 -10.1%

Away win 35.8% 27.8% 3.60 +28.9%

Over 2.5 49.7% 50.0% 2.00 -0.6%

Over 3.5 28.8% 29.0% 3.45 -0.4%

BTTS 52.8% 57.8% 1.73 -8.7%

Home O1.5 35.2% 47.6% 2.10 -26.1%

Away O1.5 39.8% 33.3% 3.00 +19.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -52.1%

Bet Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.8%

A 36% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.5%

#3 0–1 12.2%

#4 1–2 8.4%

#5 1–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo PB1.1

Brusque1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO PB · PPG 1.80

BRUSQUE · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo PB (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -25.2%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.1%

Brusque (A) 35.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo PB face Brusque in Brazil - Serie C on Tuesday, June 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo PB a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Brusque 36%, so Botafogo PB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Botafogo PB and 1.3 for Brusque (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo PB are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.20 for Brusque. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +50.2%.

Botafogo PB vs Brusque Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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