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Figueirense vs Guarani Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 14:00

Figueirense

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guarani

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 42.0% — a clear edge.

+32.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-114.4%0-212.1%0-36.8%0-4+4.1%1 1-06.7%1-111.2%1-29.4%1-35.2%1-4+3.2%2 2-02.6%2-14.4%2-23.6%2-32.0%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.7%3-11.1%3-20.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 20.4% 2.88 -24.8%

Draw 24.0% 3.00 -16.8%

Away win 55.6% 2.38 +32.3%

Over 2.5 49.8% 2.20 +9.6%

Over 3.5 28.6% 4.20 +12.1%

BTTS 52.2% 1.85 -3.4%

Home Over 1.5 32.5% 2.90 -5.8%

Away Over 1.5 49.7% 2.55 +26.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -48.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob52.2%

A 56% / xG 0.8-1.7 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 0–1 14.4%

#3 0–2 12.1%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Figueirense0.8

Guarani1.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FIGUEIRENSE · PPG 1.20

GUARANI · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.20) vs Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Figueirense (H) 20.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -24.8%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.8%

Guarani (A) 55.6%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +32.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Figueirense face Guarani in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Figueirense a 20% chance, the draw 24% and Guarani 56%, so Guarani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Figueirense and 1.7 for Guarani (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Figueirense are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.60 for Guarani. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +45.4%.

Figueirense vs Guarani Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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