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Ferroviaria vs Caxias Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 23:30

Ferroviaria

PPG 2.17 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Caxias

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.8%0-114.0%0-24.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.2%1-111.8%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.6%2-15.0%2-21.5%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.4%3-11.4%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 48.8% 2.05 -9.4%

Draw 32.4% 32.3% 3.10 +0.4%

Away win 23.4% 28.2% 3.55 -10.2%

Over 2.5 31.8% 42.6% 2.35 -25.3%

Over 3.5 12.1% 23.1% 4.33 -28.6%

BTTS 44.6% 51.3% 1.95 -13.0%

Home O1.5 33.7% 43.5% 2.30 -22.5%

Away O1.5 18.0% 28.2% 3.55 -21.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -57.7%

Bet Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.6%

H 44% / xG 0.8-0.6 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.8%

#2 1–0 20.2%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 0–1✓ 14.0%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferroviaria0.8

Caxias0.6

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FERROVIARIA · PPG 2.17

CAXIAS · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=44.2%

Win probability 1X2

Ferroviaria (H) 44.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -9.4%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +0.4%

Caxias (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferroviaria face Caxias in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferroviaria a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Caxias 23%, so Ferroviaria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Ferroviaria and 0.6 for Caxias (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferroviaria are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.50 for Caxias. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Ferroviaria vs Caxias Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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