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Confianca vs Barra FC Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 22:00

Confianca

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Barra FC

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.1%0-117.2%0-25.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.5%1-112.0%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-06.1%2-14.2%2-21.4%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.4%3-11.0%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 48.8% 2.05 -24.4%

Draw 34.4% 33.3% 3.00 +3.2%

Away win 28.7% 27.8% 3.60 +2.0%

Over 2.5 31.7% 42.6% 2.35 -25.5%

Over 3.5 12.1% 23.1% 4.33 -28.6%

BTTS 44.6% 51.3% 1.95 -13.0%

Home O1.5 33.7% 43.5% 2.30 -22.5%

Away O1.5 22.5% 28.2% 3.55 -12.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -57.7%

Bet Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.6%

D 34% / xG 0.7-0.7 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.1%

#2 1–0 17.5%

#3 0–1 17.2%

#4 1–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Confianca0.7

Barra FC0.7

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.7% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CONFIANCA · PPG 1.67

BARRA FC · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=36.9%

Win probability 1X2

Confianca (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -24.4%

Draw 34.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +3.2%

Barra FC (A) 28.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Confianca face Barra FC in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Confianca a 37% chance, the draw 34% and Barra FC 29%, so Confianca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Confianca and 0.7 for Barra FC (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Confianca are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.83 for Barra FC. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Confianca vs Barra FC Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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