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Santa Cruz vs Ituano Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 22:30

Santa Cruz

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Ituano

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.4%0-113.1%0-24.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.0%1-112.9%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.8%2-16.3%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.9%3-12.1%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% — — —

Draw 30.9% — — —

Away win 24.1% — — —

Over 2.5 34.9% — — —

Over 3.5 18.0% — — —

BTTS 46.5% — — —

Home O1.5 35.2% — — —

Away O1.5 22.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -57.7%

Bet Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.5%

H 45% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.4%

#2 1–0✓ 18.0%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 13.1%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Cruz1.0

Ituano0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA CRUZ · PPG 1.40

ITUANO · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Santa Cruz (H) 45.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ituano (A) 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Cruz face Ituano in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Cruz a 45% chance, the draw 31% and Ituano 24%, so Santa Cruz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Santa Cruz and 0.7 for Ituano (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Cruz are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.83 for Ituano. This match finished 1-0.

Santa Cruz vs Ituano Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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