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Grobina vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 13:00

Grobina

PPG 0.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tukums

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-110.4%0-27.7%0-33.8%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.3%1-112.2%1-29.0%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.9%2-17.2%2-25.3%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.9%3-12.8%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 48.8% 2.05 -18.6%

Draw 25.2% 29.4% 3.40 -8.6%

Away win 35.2% 32.3% 3.10 +9.1%

Over 2.5 54.9% 55.6% 1.80 -1.2%

Over 3.5 36.0% 33.3% 3.00 +8.0%

BTTS 55.6% 60.6% 1.65 -8.3%

Home O1.5 35.2% 51.3% 1.95 -31.4%

Away O1.5 49.8% 38.5% 2.60 +29.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.6%

A 35% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–0 7.0%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 0–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grobina1.2

Tukums1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GROBINA · PPG 0.64

TUKUMS · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.64), Away POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

Grobina (H) 39.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -18.6%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.6%

Tukums (A) 35.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grobina face Tukums in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grobina a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Tukums 35%, so Grobina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Grobina and 1.5 for Tukums (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grobina are averaging 0.64 points per game versus 0.40 for Tukums. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +29.5%.

Grobina vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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