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Liepaja vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 21 ·Tuesday, June 30, 2026, 16:00

Liepaja

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ogre United

PPG 0.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-13.2%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.1%1-17.8%1-23.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-19.5%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.1%3-17.8%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-18.5%4+-24.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.7% 78.1% 1.28 -21.0%

Draw 19.8% 20.0% 5.00 -0.6%

Away win 18.5% 11.4% 8.80 +37.7%

Over 2.5 66.4% 69.0% 1.45 -3.7%

Over 3.5 43.8% 46.5% 2.15 -5.8%

BTTS 62.1% 57.8% 1.73 +7.4%

Home O1.5 61.3% 76.9% 1.30 -20.3%

Away O1.5 30.2% 23.8% 4.20 +26.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob62.1%

H 62% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.8%

#4 3–0 8.1%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liepaja2.4

Ogre United1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LIEPAJA · PPG 1.70

OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.30

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.70) vs P(Home)=61.7%

Win probability 1X2

Liepaja (H) 61.7%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -21.0%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -0.6%

Ogre United (A) 18.5%

ODDS 8.80 · IMPLIED 11.4% EV +37.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Liepaja face Ogre United in Latvia - Virsliga on Tuesday, June 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liepaja a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Ogre United 19%, so Liepaja are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Liepaja and 1.0 for Ogre United (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liepaja are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.30 for Ogre United. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.7%.

Liepaja vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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