Today / Latvia - Virsliga / FS Jelgava vs Grobina

FS Jelgava vs Grobina Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 21 ·Monday, June 29, 2026, 15:00

FS Jelgava

PPG 1.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Grobina

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-19.9%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.1%1-112.9%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.8%2-18.4%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.3%3-13.6%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 51.3% 1.95 -4.8%

Draw 27.4% 30.8% 3.25 -6.6%

Away win 23.7% 28.6% 3.50 -10.2%

Over 2.5 47.4% 51.3% 1.95 -7.6%

Over 3.5 27.8% 29.0% 3.45 -2.5%

BTTS 48.1% 57.1% 1.75 -15.8%

Home O1.5 43.1% 48.8% 2.05 -11.7%

Away O1.5 22.9% 33.3% 3.00 -18.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -4.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.1%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 15.1%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FS Jelgava1.3

Grobina0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FS JELGAVA · PPG 1.10

GROBINA · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.10), Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

FS Jelgava (H) 48.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -4.8%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.6%

Grobina (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FS Jelgava face Grobina in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, June 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FS Jelgava a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Grobina 24%, so FS Jelgava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for FS Jelgava and 0.9 for Grobina (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FS Jelgava are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.11 for Grobina.

FS Jelgava vs Grobina Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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