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RFS vs Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 21 ·Tuesday, June 30, 2026, 15:00

RFS

PPG 2.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Daugavpils

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.9% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-12.7%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.6%1-16.9%1-22.5%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.3%2-18.9%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.5%3-17.6%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.4%4+-19.0%4+-23.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.9% 84.7% 1.18 -16.3%

Draw 18.7% 17.4% 5.75 +4.5%

Away win 10.4% 7.7% 13.00 +21.1%

Over 2.5 63.9% 70.4% 1.42 -9.3%

Over 3.5 40.6% 48.8% 2.05 -16.8%

BTTS 52.5% 51.8% 1.93 +1.3%

Home O1.5 61.5% 82.0% 1.22 -25.0%

Away O1.5 22.5% 20.0% 5.00 +7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.5%

H 71% / xG 2.6-0.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.3%

#2 3–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 1–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RFS2.6

Daugavpils0.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RFS · PPG 2.44

DAUGAVPILS · PPG 0.88

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.44), Away POOR (0.88) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

RFS (H) 70.9%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -16.3%

Draw 18.7%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +4.5%

Daugavpils (A) 10.4%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

RFS face Daugavpils in Latvia - Virsliga on Tuesday, June 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RFS a 71% chance, the draw 19% and Daugavpils 10%, so RFS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for RFS and 0.7 for Daugavpils (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RFS are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 0.88 for Daugavpils. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.1%.

RFS vs Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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