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Tukums vs Super Nova Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 21 ·Wednesday, July 1, 2026, 15:00

Tukums

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Super Nova

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.7%0-23.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.9%1-110.6%1-26.3%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.1%3-16.0%3-23.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.2%4+-22.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 46.5% 2.15 +12.7%

Draw 23.2% 30.8% 3.25 -14.8%

Away win 24.4% 32.3% 3.10 -14.6%

Over 2.5 61.6% 51.8% 1.93 +18.9%

Over 3.5 39.8% 30.3% 3.30 +31.3%

BTTS 62.1% 58.8% 1.70 +5.6%

Home O1.5 54.7% 47.6% 2.10 +14.9%

Away O1.5 36.4% 37.0% 2.70 -1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 100 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.1%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 0–0 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tukums1.8

Super Nova1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TUKUMS · PPG 1.30

SUPER NOVA · PPG 1.45

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.30), Away AVERAGE (1.45)

Win probability 1X2

Tukums (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +12.7%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.8%

Super Nova (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tukums face Super Nova in Latvia - Virsliga on Wednesday, July 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tukums a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Super Nova 24%, so Tukums are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Tukums and 1.2 for Super Nova (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tukums are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.45 for Super Nova. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +31.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Tukums vs Super Nova Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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