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Daugavpils vs Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 13:00

Daugavpils

PPG 1.42 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Liepaja

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-110.5%0-24.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.9%1-113.1%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.7%2-18.2%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.7%3-13.4%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 32.3% 3.10 +39.5%

Draw 27.5% 28.6% 3.50 -2.3%

Away win 27.4% 48.8% 2.05 -26.3%

Over 2.5 47.1% 58.8% 1.70 -19.9%

Over 3.5 28.2% 36.4% 2.75 -13.5%

BTTS 51.3% 63.7% 1.57 -19.5%

Home O1.5 42.0% 40.8% 2.45 +2.9%

Away O1.5 26.0% 54.1% 1.85 -31.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.3%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 13.9%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daugavpils1.3

Liepaja0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DAUGAVPILS · PPG 1.42

LIEPAJA · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.42) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Daugavpils (H) 45.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +39.5%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.3%

Liepaja (A) 27.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -26.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Daugavpils face Liepaja in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daugavpils a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Liepaja 27%, so Daugavpils are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Daugavpils and 0.9 for Liepaja (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daugavpils are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 0.80 for Liepaja. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +39.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Daugavpils vs Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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