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Liepaja vs RFS Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 20 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 16:00

Liepaja

PPG 1.89 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

RFS

PPG 2.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-111.4%0-211.0%0-37.1%0-4+5.3%1 1-05.3%1-110.2%1-29.9%1-36.4%1-4+4.8%2 2-02.4%2-14.6%2-24.5%2-32.9%2-4+2.2%3 3-00.7%3-11.4%3-21.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.8% 15.4% 6.50 +13.3%

Draw 22.4% 22.7% 4.40 -0.9%

Away win 58.8% 71.4% 1.40 -17.7%

Over 2.5 61.3% 64.5% 1.55 -5.0%

Over 3.5 37.3% 42.0% 2.38 -11.2%

BTTS 54.3% 58.8% 1.70 -7.7%

Home O1.5 32.5% 27.4% 3.65 +18.6%

Away O1.5 49.7% 70.4% 1.42 -29.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob54.3%

A 59% / xG 0.9-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 0–2✓ 11.0%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liepaja0.9

RFS1.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LIEPAJA · PPG 1.89

RFS · PPG 2.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.70) vs Home GOOD (1.89)

Win probability 1X2

Liepaja (H) 18.8%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +13.3%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -0.9%

RFS (A) 58.8%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Liepaja face RFS in Latvia - Virsliga on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liepaja a 19% chance, the draw 22% and RFS 59%, so RFS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Liepaja and 1.9 for RFS (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liepaja are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 2.70 for RFS. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +18.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Liepaja vs RFS Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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