Today / Latvia - Virsliga / RFS vs Auda

RFS vs Auda Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 15:00

RFS

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Auda

PPG 2.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.5%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.6%1-19.4%1-24.2%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.7%3-16.9%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-15.9%4+-22.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.9% 73.5% 1.36 -18.5%

Draw 21.1% 22.7% 4.40 -4.3%

Away win 19.0% 13.8% 7.25 +22.7%

Over 2.5 60.9% 64.5% 1.55 -5.6%

Over 3.5 37.1% 42.6% 2.35 -12.8%

BTTS 52.8% 58.8% 1.70 -10.2%

Home O1.5 61.2% 71.4% 1.40 -14.3%

Away O1.5 23.8% 26.0% 3.85 -5.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 100 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.8%

H 60% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.1%

#2 1–1✓ 9.4%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RFS2.1

Auda0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RFS · PPG 2.50

AUDA · PPG 2.09

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.50) > Away EXCELLENT (2.09)

Win probability 1X2

RFS (H) 59.9%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -18.5%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -4.3%

Auda (A) 19.0%

ODDS 7.25 · IMPLIED 13.8% EV +22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

RFS face Auda in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RFS a 60% chance, the draw 21% and Auda 19%, so RFS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for RFS and 0.9 for Auda (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RFS are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.09 for Auda. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 1-1.

RFS vs Auda Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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