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Auda vs Riga FC Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 21 ·Monday, June 29, 2026, 15:00

Auda

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Riga FC

PPG 2.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-16.2%0-26.7%0-34.9%0-4+4.4%1 1-03.9%1-18.6%1-29.3%1-36.7%1-4+6.1%2 2-02.7%2-15.9%2-26.5%2-34.7%2-4+4.2%3 3-01.3%3-12.7%3-23.0%3-32.2%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.3%4+-21.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.6% 15.4% 6.50 +43.7%

Draw 21.0% 22.7% 4.40 -4.6%

Away win 52.4% 71.4% 1.40 -26.6%

Over 2.5 64.1% 65.4% 1.53 -1.9%

Over 3.5 41.1% 42.6% 2.35 -3.4%

BTTS 61.6% 59.9% 1.67 +2.9%

Home O1.5 43.3% 28.2% 3.55 +53.7%

Away O1.5 55.6% 71.4% 1.40 -22.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -4.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob61.6%

A 52% / xG 1.4-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 1–3 6.7%

#4 0–2 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Auda1.4

Riga FC2.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AUDA · PPG 1.78

RIGA FC · PPG 2.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.30) vs Home GOOD (1.78)

Win probability 1X2

Auda (H) 26.6%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +43.7%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -4.6%

Riga FC (A) 52.4%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Auda face Riga FC in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, June 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Auda a 27% chance, the draw 21% and Riga FC 52%, so Riga FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Auda and 2.2 for Riga FC (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Auda are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 2.30 for Riga FC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +53.7%.

Auda vs Riga FC Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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