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Riga FC vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 22 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 16:00

Riga FC

PPG 2.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

FS Jelgava

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 75.0% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-12.0%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.5%1-15.9%1-22.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.7%2-18.4%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.2%3-18.0%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-014.7%4+-111.5%4+-24.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.7% 87.7% 1.14 -27.4%

Draw 17.2% 15.4% 6.50 +7.1%

Away win 19.1% 7.1% 14.00 +100.4%

Over 2.5 67.1% 75.2% 1.33 -10.8%

Over 3.5 44.1% 54.1% 1.85 -18.4%

BTTS 55.6% 51.3% 1.95 +8.4%

Home O1.5 75.0% 85.5% 1.17 -12.3%

Away O1.5 22.5% 18.2% 5.50 +14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 100 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.6%

H 64% / xG 2.9-0.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 3–0✓ 10.2%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 4–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga FC2.9

FS Jelgava0.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA FC · PPG 2.60

FS JELGAVA · PPG 1.10

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs P(Home)=63.7%

Win probability 1X2

Riga FC (H) 63.7%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -27.4%

Draw 17.2%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +7.1%

FS Jelgava (A) 19.1%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +100.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga FC face FS Jelgava in Latvia - Virsliga on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga FC a 64% chance, the draw 17% and FS Jelgava 19%, so Riga FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Riga FC and 0.8 for FS Jelgava (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga FC are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.10 for FS Jelgava. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +100.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Riga FC vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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