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Ogre United vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 20 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 15:00

Ogre United

PPG 0.44 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tukums

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.3%0-26.7%0-34.7%0-4+4.1%1 1-04.1%1-18.8%1-29.3%1-36.6%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.9%2-16.1%2-26.5%2-34.6%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.3%3-12.9%3-23.0%3-32.1%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.4%4+-21.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.8% 25.3% 3.95 +5.9%

Draw 21.4% 27.4% 3.65 -13.1%

Away win 50.8% 57.1% 1.75 -11.1%

Over 2.5 65.9% 60.6% 1.65 +8.7%

Over 3.5 43.1% 38.5% 2.60 +12.1%

BTTS 63.5% 63.7% 1.57 -0.3%

Home O1.5 43.4% 36.4% 2.75 +19.4%

Away O1.5 53.2% 59.9% 1.67 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.5%

A 51% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–2 6.7%

#4 1–3 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ogre United1.4

Tukums2.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.44

TUKUMS · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.44), Away POOR (0.44)

Win probability 1X2

Ogre United (H) 27.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +5.9%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -13.1%

Tukums (A) 50.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ogre United face Tukums in Latvia - Virsliga on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ogre United a 28% chance, the draw 21% and Tukums 51%, so Tukums are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ogre United and 2.1 for Tukums (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ogre United are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 0.44 for Tukums. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +19.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Ogre United vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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