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Nanjing City vs Foshan Nanshi Prediction— China - League One

Sunday, July 5, 2026

Nanjing City

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Foshan Nanshi

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.60)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-19.7%0-24.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.8%1-112.9%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-18.6%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.8%3-13.8%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% — — —

Draw 26.7% — — —

Away win 25.9% — — —

Over 2.5 49.7% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 52.8% — — —

Home O1.5 42.8% — — —

Away O1.5 31.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 18%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.8%

H 47% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nanjing City1.3

Foshan Nanshi1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NANJING CITY · PPG 1.67

FOSHAN NANSHI · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Nanjing City (H) 47.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Foshan Nanshi (A) 25.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nanjing City face Foshan Nanshi in China - League One on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nanjing City a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Foshan Nanshi 26%, so Nanjing City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Nanjing City and 1.0 for Foshan Nanshi (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nanjing City are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.60 for Foshan Nanshi.

Nanjing City vs Foshan Nanshi Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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