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Dalian Kuncheng vs Shenzhen J. Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 11:00

Dalian Kuncheng

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shenzhen J.

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 32.3% — a clear edge.

+64.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-114.6%0-211.1%0-35.6%0-4+3.0%1 1-07.9%1-112.0%1-29.1%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-03.3%2-15.0%2-23.8%2-31.9%2-4+1.0%3 3-00.9%3-11.4%3-21.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 20.8% 2.15 -33.2%

Draw 26.3% 3.20 -9.5%

Away win 52.9% 3.10 +64.0%

Over 2.5 47.4% 1.93 -8.5%

Over 3.5 28.0% 3.25 -5.4%

BTTS 48.1% 1.70 -18.2%

Home Over 1.5 32.5% 2.10 -31.8%

Away Over 1.5 49.7% 2.70 +34.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 71%

ROI -54.4%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.1%

A 53% / xG 0.8-1.5 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 0–1 14.6%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 0–2 11.1%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalian Kuncheng0.8

Shenzhen J.1.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DALIAN KUNCHENG · PPG 0.80

SHENZHEN J. · PPG 2.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Dalian Kuncheng (H) 20.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -33.2%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.5%

Shenzhen J. (A) 52.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +64.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalian Kuncheng face Shenzhen J. in China - League One on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalian Kuncheng a 21% chance, the draw 26% and Shenzhen J. 53%, so Shenzhen J. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Dalian Kuncheng and 1.5 for Shenzhen J. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalian Kuncheng are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 2.17 for Shenzhen J.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +64.0%.

Dalian Kuncheng vs Shenzhen J. Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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