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Meizhou Hakka vs Changchun Yatai Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 11:30

Meizhou Hakka

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Changchun Yatai

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+10.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.6%0-26.6%0-34.5%0-4+3.6%1 1-04.6%1-19.3%1-29.3%1-36.3%1-4+5.0%2 2-03.2%2-16.5%2-26.6%2-34.4%2-4+3.5%3 3-01.5%3-13.1%3-23.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.5%4+-21.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.0% 37.0% 2.70 -10.9%

Draw 22.5% 29.9% 3.35 -14.8%

Away win 44.6% 42.9% 2.33 +3.9%

Over 2.5 63.9% 57.8% 1.73 +10.5%

Over 3.5 41.4% 36.4% 2.75 +13.9%

BTTS 63.1% 64.5% 1.55 -2.2%

Home O1.5 43.2% 43.5% 2.30 -0.6%

Away O1.5 49.8% 48.8% 2.05 +2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 18%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.1%

A 45% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–2 6.6%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Meizhou Hakka1.4

Changchun Yatai2.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 41.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MEIZHOU HAKKA · PPG 0.67

CHANGCHUN YATAI · PPG 1.17

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.67) vs Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Meizhou Hakka (H) 33.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -10.9%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -14.8%

Changchun Yatai (A) 44.6%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Meizhou Hakka face Changchun Yatai in China - League One on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Meizhou Hakka a 33% chance, the draw 23% and Changchun Yatai 45%, so Changchun Yatai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Meizhou Hakka and 2.0 for Changchun Yatai (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Meizhou Hakka are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.17 for Changchun Yatai. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +44.0%.

Meizhou Hakka vs Changchun Yatai Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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