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Changchun Yatai vs Guangxi H. Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 07:30

Changchun Yatai

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guangxi H.

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-111.6%0-27.6%0-33.3%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.8%1-112.9%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.5%2-17.2%2-24.7%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.0%3-12.7%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 32.6% 3.00 -2.2%

Draw 27.4% 3.20 -7.4%

Away win 40.0% 2.25 -10.0%

Over 2.5 50.0% 1.95 -2.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% 3.40 -1.3%

BTTS 55.6% 1.70 -5.5%

Home Over 1.5 35.5% 2.70 -4.2%

Away Over 1.5 38.9% 2.20 -14.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 71%

ROI -54.4%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.6%

A 40% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 0–1 11.6%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Changchun Yatai1.1

Guangxi H.1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHANGCHUN YATAI · PPG 1.80

GUANGXI H. · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=32.6%

Win probability 1X2

Changchun Yatai (H) 32.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -2.2%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.4%

Guangxi H. (A) 40.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Changchun Yatai face Guangxi H. in China - League One on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Changchun Yatai a 33% chance, the draw 27% and Guangxi H. 40%, so Guangxi H. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Changchun Yatai and 1.3 for Guangxi H. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.83 for Guangxi H..

Changchun Yatai vs Guangxi H. Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League One Predictions