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Guangdong GZP vs Shaanxi Union Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 11:30

Guangdong GZP

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shaanxi Union

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-113.0%0-25.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.8%1-113.5%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.7%2-17.0%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.6%3-12.4%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 1.90 -31.2%

Draw 29.4% 3.25 -2.7%

Away win 34.4% 3.75 +29.0%

Over 2.5 47.2% 1.93 -8.9%

Over 3.5 27.7% 3.25 -6.0%

BTTS 48.1% 1.73 -16.8%

Home Over 1.5 35.5% 1.95 -30.8%

Away Over 1.5 22.9% 3.10 -17.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 71%

ROI -54.4%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.1%

D 29% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.8%

#4 0–1 13.0%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guangdong GZP1.0

Shaanxi Union0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GUANGDONG GZP · PPG 2.17

SHAANXI UNION · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=36.2%

Win probability 1X2

Guangdong GZP (H) 36.2%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -31.2%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -2.7%

Shaanxi Union (A) 34.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +29.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guangdong GZP face Shaanxi Union in China - League One on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guangdong GZP a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Shaanxi Union 34%, so Guangdong GZP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Guangdong GZP and 0.9 for Shaanxi Union (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guangdong GZP are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.33 for Shaanxi Union. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +29.0%.

Guangdong GZP vs Shaanxi Union Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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