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Suzhou Dongwu vs Guangdong GZP Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 11:00

Suzhou Dongwu

PPG 0.50 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Guangdong GZP

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-115.3%0-213.5%0-37.9%0-4+5.2%1 1-05.9%1-110.4%1-29.2%1-35.4%1-4+3.5%2 2-02.0%2-13.6%2-23.1%2-31.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.5%3-10.8%3-20.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.9% 15.2% 6.60 -5.0%

Draw 24.5% 26.3% 3.80 -4.1%

Away win 61.5% 69.0% 1.45 -10.8%

Over 2.5 49.7% 50.0% 2.00 -0.6%

Over 3.5 28.8% 28.6% 3.50 +0.5%

BTTS 48.5% 48.8% 2.05 -0.6%

Home O1.5 33.7% 20.0% 5.00 +68.5%

Away O1.5 49.8% 59.9% 1.67 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 18%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob48.5%

A 62% / xG 0.7-1.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.3%

#2 0–2 13.5%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Suzhou Dongwu0.7

Guangdong GZP1.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SUZHOU DONGWU · PPG 0.50

GUANGDONG GZP · PPG 2.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Suzhou Dongwu (H) 13.9%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV -5.0%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.1%

Guangdong GZP (A) 61.5%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Suzhou Dongwu face Guangdong GZP in China - League One on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suzhou Dongwu a 14% chance, the draw 25% and Guangdong GZP 62%, so Guangdong GZP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Suzhou Dongwu and 1.8 for Guangdong GZP (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suzhou Dongwu are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Guangdong GZP. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +68.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Suzhou Dongwu vs Guangdong GZP Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League One Predictions