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S. Gongfu vs Nanjing City Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 11:30

S. Gongfu

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nanjing City

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-028.6%0-122.8%0-29.1%0-32.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.0%1-110.4%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-03.0%2-12.4%2-20.9%2-30.2%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.5%3-10.4%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 22.5% 2.80 -22.2%

Draw 39.6% 2.90 +14.8%

Away win 38.0% 2.50 -5.0%

Over 2.5 30.8% 2.35 -27.6%

Over 3.5 12.2% 4.33 -28.3%

BTTS 43.2% 1.93 -16.6%

Home Over 1.5 20.0% 3.00 -24.0%

Away Over 1.5 22.9% 2.70 -22.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 71%

ROI -54.4%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.2%

A 38% / xG 0.5-0.8 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 28.6%

#2 0–1 22.8%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 1–0 13.0%

#5 0–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Gongfu0.5

Nanjing City0.8

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

S. GONGFU · PPG 0.67

NANJING CITY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.67) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

S. Gongfu (H) 22.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -22.2%

Draw 39.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +14.8%

Nanjing City (A) 38.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Gongfu face Nanjing City in China - League One on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Gongfu a 23% chance, the draw 40% and Nanjing City 38%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for S. Gongfu and 0.8 for Nanjing City (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Gongfu are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Nanjing City. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +14.8%.

S. Gongfu vs Nanjing City Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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