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Shaanxi Union vs Wuxi Wugou Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 11:00

Shaanxi Union

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Wuxi Wugou

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-113.1%0-25.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.2%1-113.4%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.8%2-16.9%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.7%3-12.4%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 48.8% 2.05 -15.8%

Draw 30.0% 32.3% 3.10 -7.0%

Away win 28.9% 29.0% 3.45 -0.2%

Over 2.5 45.9% 50.0% 2.00 -8.2%

Over 3.5 27.6% 28.6% 3.50 -2.0%

BTTS 48.5% 57.1% 1.75 -15.1%

Home O1.5 35.2% 48.8% 2.05 -27.8%

Away O1.5 23.8% 33.3% 3.00 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 18%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

H 41% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.8%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 0–1 13.1%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shaanxi Union1.0

Wuxi Wugou0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAANXI UNION · PPG 1.25

WUXI WUGOU · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Shaanxi Union (H) 41.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -15.8%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.0%

Wuxi Wugou (A) 28.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shaanxi Union face Wuxi Wugou in China - League One on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shaanxi Union a 41% chance, the draw 30% and Wuxi Wugou 29%, so Shaanxi Union are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Shaanxi Union and 0.9 for Wuxi Wugou (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shaanxi Union are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.33 for Wuxi Wugou. This match finished 2-1.

Shaanxi Union vs Wuxi Wugou Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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