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Guangxi H. vs Dalian Kuncheng Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 11:30

Guangxi H.

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dalian Kuncheng

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-18.2%0-24.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.5%1-112.3%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.2%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.7%3-14.6%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 54.1% 1.85 -9.3%

Draw 25.2% 30.8% 3.25 -10.9%

Away win 25.8% 25.3% 3.95 +1.1%

Over 2.5 54.1% 51.8% 1.93 +4.4%

Over 3.5 33.2% 30.3% 3.30 +9.6%

BTTS 55.6% 57.1% 1.75 -2.7%

Home O1.5 43.2% 51.8% 1.93 -16.6%

Away O1.5 31.7% 32.3% 3.10 -1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 18%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.6%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 0–0 8.3%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guangxi H.1.5

Dalian Kuncheng1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GUANGXI H. · PPG 2.20

DALIAN KUNCHENG · PPG 1.20

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=49.0%

Win probability 1X2

Guangxi H. (H) 49.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -9.3%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.9%

Dalian Kuncheng (A) 25.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guangxi H. face Dalian Kuncheng in China - League One on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guangxi H. a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Dalian Kuncheng 26%, so Guangxi H. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Guangxi H. and 1.0 for Dalian Kuncheng (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guangxi H. are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.20 for Dalian Kuncheng. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.6%.

Guangxi H. vs Dalian Kuncheng Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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