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Qingdao Hainiu vs Chengdu Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 11:00

Qingdao Hainiu

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chengdu

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.9%0-26.7%0-33.8%0-4+2.4%1 1-06.3%1-110.8%1-29.2%1-35.2%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.3%2-17.4%2-26.3%2-33.6%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.0%3-13.4%3-22.9%3-31.6%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% 18.9% 5.30 +83.9%

Draw 23.9% 24.4% 4.10 -1.2%

Away win 41.4% 65.8% 1.52 -37.1%

Over 2.5 62.2% 61.7% 1.62 +0.8%

Over 3.5 39.8% 40.0% 2.50 -0.5%

BTTS 62.1% 60.6% 1.65 +2.5%

Home O1.5 42.8% 29.4% 3.40 +45.5%

Away O1.5 49.8% 65.4% 1.53 -23.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 25%

ROI -14.9%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.1%

A 41% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 0–2 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qingdao Hainiu1.4

Chengdu1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

QINGDAO HAINIU · PPG 2.00

CHENGDU · PPG 2.38

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.00) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.38)

Win probability 1X2

Qingdao Hainiu (H) 34.7%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV +83.9%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.2%

Chengdu (A) 41.4%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -37.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qingdao Hainiu face Chengdu in China - Super League on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qingdao Hainiu a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Chengdu 41%, so Chengdu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Qingdao Hainiu and 1.7 for Chengdu (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qingdao Hainiu are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.38 for Chengdu. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +83.9%.

Qingdao Hainiu vs Chengdu Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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