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Dalian Yingbo vs S. Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 11:00

Dalian Yingbo

PPG 2.14 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWD

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

S. Shenhua

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.4%0-25.1%0-32.7%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.5%1-110.3%1-28.3%1-34.4%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.3%2-18.4%2-26.7%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.9%3-14.6%3-23.6%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.7%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 40.7% 2.46 +4.5%

Draw 23.5% 28.6% 3.50 -10.7%

Away win 34.0% 40.0% 2.50 -15.0%

Over 2.5 63.3% 61.7% 1.62 +2.5%

Over 3.5 39.8% 40.0% 2.50 -0.5%

BTTS 61.6% 67.6% 1.48 -8.8%

Home O1.5 52.6% 48.8% 2.05 +7.8%

Away O1.5 49.7% 48.8% 2.05 +1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.6%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–0 4.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalian Yingbo1.6

S. Shenhua1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DALIAN YINGBO · PPG 2.14

S. SHENHUA · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=42.5%

Win probability 1X2

Dalian Yingbo (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV +4.5%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.7%

S. Shenhua (A) 34.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalian Yingbo face S. Shenhua in China - Super League on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalian Yingbo a 43% chance, the draw 24% and S. Shenhua 34%, so Dalian Yingbo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Dalian Yingbo and 1.6 for S. Shenhua (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalian Yingbo are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.29 for S. Shenhua. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +7.8%. This match finished 1-4.

Dalian Yingbo vs S. Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - Super League Predictions