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Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three T. Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 12:00

Beijing Guoan

PPG 1.14 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Wuhan Three T.

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.3%0-22.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.3%1-17.7%1-25.6%1-32.7%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.2%2-19.0%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.8%3-17.0%3-25.1%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-17.0%4+-25.1%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 76.9% 1.30 -31.2%

Draw 21.8% 18.5% 5.40 +10.6%

Away win 25.2% 13.9% 7.20 +48.9%

Over 2.5 66.3% 73.5% 1.36 -9.8%

Over 3.5 43.6% 51.8% 1.93 -15.8%

BTTS 63.5% 63.7% 1.57 -0.3%

Home O1.5 60.6% 78.1% 1.28 -22.4%

Away O1.5 46.1% 29.0% 3.45 +59.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 53% / xG 2.3-1.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 3–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Beijing Guoan2.3

Wuhan Three T.1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BEIJING GUOAN · PPG 1.14

WUHAN THREE T. · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.14) > Away POOR (0.63)

Win probability 1X2

Beijing Guoan (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -31.2%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +10.6%

Wuhan Three T. (A) 25.2%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +48.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Beijing Guoan face Wuhan Three T. in China - Super League on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Beijing Guoan a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Wuhan Three T. 25%, so Beijing Guoan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Beijing Guoan and 1.5 for Wuhan Three T. (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.63 for Wuhan Three T.. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +59.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three T. Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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