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Dalian Yingbo vs Wuhan Three T. Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 11:35

Dalian Yingbo

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWD

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Wuhan Three T.

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.6%0-23.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.6%1-19.2%1-26.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.4%3-16.3%3-24.4%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.0%4+-23.5%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 59.9% 1.67 -17.3%

Draw 22.4% 27.0% 3.70 -10.3%

Away win 28.2% 22.0% 4.55 +17.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 58.8% 1.70 +8.6%

Over 3.5 40.8% 36.4% 2.75 +12.2%

BTTS 62.1% 60.6% 1.65 +2.5%

Home O1.5 54.7% 58.8% 1.70 -7.0%

Away O1.5 39.8% 31.3% 3.20 +27.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.1%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 6.6%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalian Yingbo2.0

Wuhan Three T.1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 40.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DALIAN YINGBO · PPG 1.88

WUHAN THREE T. · PPG 0.56

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=49.5%

Win probability 1X2

Dalian Yingbo (H) 49.5%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -17.3%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.3%

Wuhan Three T. (A) 28.2%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalian Yingbo face Wuhan Three T. in China - Super League on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalian Yingbo a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Wuhan Three T. 28%, so Dalian Yingbo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Dalian Yingbo and 1.4 for Wuhan Three T. (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalian Yingbo are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.56 for Wuhan Three T.. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +27.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Dalian Yingbo vs Wuhan Three T. Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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