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Beijing Guoan vs Shandong T. Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 11:35

Beijing Guoan

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Shandong T.

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.9% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.4%0-23.6%0-31.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.5%1-18.8%1-27.1%1-33.8%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.6%3-15.8%3-24.6%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.5%4+-23.6%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 58.8% 1.70 -22.5%

Draw 22.1% 24.4% 4.10 -5.6%

Away win 32.3% 25.6% 3.90 +26.0%

Over 2.5 66.9% 72.5% 1.38 -7.7%

Over 3.5 43.9% 51.8% 1.93 -15.3%

BTTS 63.3% 73.5% 1.36 -13.9%

Home O1.5 54.7% 69.0% 1.45 -20.7%

Away O1.5 49.8% 44.4% 2.25 +12.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.3%

H 46% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Beijing Guoan2.0

Shandong T.1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BEIJING GUOAN · PPG 1.38

SHANDONG T. · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Beijing Guoan (H) 45.6%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -22.5%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.6%

Shandong T. (A) 32.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +26.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Beijing Guoan face Shandong T. in China - Super League on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Beijing Guoan a 46% chance, the draw 22% and Shandong T. 32%, so Beijing Guoan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Beijing Guoan and 1.6 for Shandong T. (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.50 for Shandong T.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +26.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Beijing Guoan vs Shandong T. Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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