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Qingdao West C. vs Shanghai Port Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 11:00

Qingdao West C.

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Shanghai Port

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.5%0-25.9%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.2%1-112.6%1-27.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.7%2-18.4%2-25.2%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.0%3-13.7%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 34.7% 2.88 +25.9%

Draw 25.0% 28.6% 3.50 -7.5%

Away win 31.4% 45.9% 2.18 -31.6%

Over 2.5 54.1% 61.7% 1.62 -12.4%

Over 3.5 33.2% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

BTTS 55.6% 67.6% 1.48 -17.7%

Home O1.5 42.8% 44.4% 2.25 -3.7%

Away O1.5 39.8% 52.6% 1.90 -24.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.6%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 2–1✓ 8.4%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qingdao West C.1.3

Shanghai Port1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

QINGDAO WEST C. · PPG 1.50

SHANGHAI PORT · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Qingdao West C. (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +25.9%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.5%

Shanghai Port (A) 31.4%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qingdao West C. face Shanghai Port in China - Super League on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qingdao West C. a 44% chance, the draw 25% and Shanghai Port 31%, so Qingdao West C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Qingdao West C. and 1.2 for Shanghai Port (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qingdao West C. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Shanghai Port. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Qingdao West C. vs Shanghai Port Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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