Today / China - Super League / Yunnan Yukun vs Henan SL

Yunnan Yukun vs Henan SL Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 17 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 12:00

Yunnan Yukun

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Henan SL

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.6%0-24.7%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.7%1-111.8%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.2%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.9%3-14.8%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 42.0% 2.38 +10.0%

Draw 25.4% 27.8% 3.60 -5.1%

Away win 28.3% 39.4% 2.54 -16.9%

Over 2.5 59.4% 66.7% 1.50 -10.9%

Over 3.5 36.4% 45.5% 2.20 -19.9%

BTTS 60.0% 71.4% 1.40 -16.0%

Home O1.5 43.2% 54.1% 1.85 -20.1%

Away O1.5 39.8% 51.8% 1.93 -23.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.0%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1✓ 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.2%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yunnan Yukun1.6

Henan SL1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

YUNNAN YUKUN · PPG 1.43

HENAN SL · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Yunnan Yukun (H) 46.2%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +10.0%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.1%

Henan SL (A) 28.3%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV -16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yunnan Yukun face Henan SL in China - Super League on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yunnan Yukun a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Henan SL 28%, so Yunnan Yukun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Yunnan Yukun and 1.2 for Henan SL (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.38 for Henan SL. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Yunnan Yukun vs Henan SL Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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