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Chongqing T. vs Tianjin JT Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 12:00

Chongqing T.

PPG 1.63 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tianjin JT

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-110.0%0-25.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.1%1-113.0%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.5%2-18.5%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.7%3-13.7%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 1.88 -16.0%

Draw 27.7% 3.15 -7.6%

Away win 27.6% 4.20 +9.6%

Over 2.5 47.5% 2.35 +11.6%

Over 3.5 28.0% 4.50 +15.6%

BTTS 51.8% 2.00 +3.6%

Home Over 1.5 43.1% 2.20 -5.2%

Away Over 1.5 32.7% 4.00 +30.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.8%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chongqing T.1.3

Tianjin JT1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHONGQING T. · PPG 1.63

TIANJIN JT · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Chongqing T. (H) 44.7%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -16.0%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -7.6%

Tianjin JT (A) 27.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chongqing T. face Tianjin JT in China - Super League on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chongqing T. a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Tianjin JT 28%, so Chongqing T. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Chongqing T. and 1.0 for Tianjin JT (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chongqing T. are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.29 for Tianjin JT. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +30.8%.

Chongqing T. vs Tianjin JT Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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