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Qingdao Hainiu vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 11:35

Qingdao Hainiu

PPG 1.86 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Yunnan Yukun

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.9%0-24.7%0-32.5%0-4+1.4%1 1-06.3%1-110.1%1-28.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.6%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.0%3-14.8%3-23.9%3-32.0%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.0%4+-22.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 2.58 +6.3%

Draw 23.8% 3.60 -8.6%

Away win 35.0% 2.36 -17.4%

Over 2.5 64.1% 1.53 -1.9%

Over 3.5 39.8% 2.30 -8.5%

BTTS 61.6% 1.42 -12.5%

Home Over 1.5 52.6% 2.00 +5.2%

Away Over 1.5 49.7% 1.90 -5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.6%

H 41% / xG 1.7-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qingdao Hainiu1.7

Yunnan Yukun1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

QINGDAO HAINIU · PPG 1.86

YUNNAN YUKUN · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Qingdao Hainiu (H) 41.2%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV +6.3%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.6%

Yunnan Yukun (A) 35.0%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qingdao Hainiu face Yunnan Yukun in China - Super League on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qingdao Hainiu a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Yunnan Yukun 35%, so Qingdao Hainiu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Qingdao Hainiu and 1.6 for Yunnan Yukun (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qingdao Hainiu are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.38 for Yunnan Yukun. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 4-2.

Qingdao Hainiu vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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