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Real Madrid C vs Colonia M. Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 17:15

Real Madrid C

PPG 1.13 · HOME

UPCOMING

Colonia M.

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.4%0-22.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.6%1-18.0%1-24.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.8%2-19.5%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.1%3-17.5%3-24.5%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-17.7%4+-24.7%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.0% 61.7% 1.62 +2.1%

Draw 18.7% 29.4% 3.40 -36.4%

Away win 18.3% 20.8% 4.80 -12.2%

Over 2.5 69.4% — — —

Over 3.5 48.1% — — —

BTTS 63.8% 57.1% 1.75 +11.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.8%

H 63% / xG 2.4-1.2 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 1–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 1–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Madrid C2.4

Colonia M.1.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.4% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL MADRID C · PPG 1.13

COLONIA M. · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.13) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Real Madrid C (H) 63.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +2.1%

Draw 18.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -36.4%

Colonia M. (A) 18.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Madrid C face Colonia M. in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Madrid C a 63% chance, the draw 19% and Colonia M. 18%, so Real Madrid C are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Real Madrid C and 1.2 for Colonia M. (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Madrid C are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.80 for Colonia M.. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +11.7%.

Real Madrid C vs Colonia M. Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Predictions