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Real Madrid C vs Conquense Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Group 5 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Real Madrid C

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Conquense

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-111.1%0-26.6%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.2%1-113.2%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.6%2-17.8%2-24.6%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.6%3-13.1%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.1% 61.0% 1.64 -44.1%

Draw 31.9% 29.4% 3.40 +8.5%

Away win 34.0% 21.7% 4.60 +56.4%

Over 2.5 41.9% 50.0% 2.00 -16.2%

Over 3.5 21.2% 29.9% 3.34 -29.2%

BTTS 49.9% 52.4% 1.91 -4.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.9%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.5%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 0–1✓ 11.1%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Madrid C1.2

Conquense1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.9% · O3.5 PROB 21.2%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL MADRID C · PPG 1.25

CONQUENSE · PPG 1.25

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Real Madrid C (H) 34.1%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -44.1%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +8.5%

Conquense (A) 34.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +56.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Madrid C face Conquense in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Madrid C a 34% chance, the draw 32% and Conquense 34%, so Real Madrid C are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Real Madrid C and 1.2 for Conquense (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Madrid C are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.25 for Conquense. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +56.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Real Madrid C vs Conquense Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Predictions