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Intercity vs Colonia M. Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Group 5 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Intercity

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Colonia M.

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-17.4%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.7%1-111.8%1-26.5%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.5%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.6%3-15.1%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 65.4% 1.53 -27.6%

Draw 28.4% 27.4% 3.65 +3.7%

Away win 24.3% 19.6% 5.10 +23.9%

Over 2.5 50.7% 57.8% 1.73 -12.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 34.2% 2.92 -16.2%

BTTS 55.1% 54.6% 1.83 +0.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.1%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–0✓ 8.6%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Intercity1.6

Colonia M.1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

INTERCITY · PPG 1.50

COLONIA M. · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Intercity (H) 47.3%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -27.6%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +3.7%

Colonia M. (A) 24.3%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Intercity face Colonia M. in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Intercity a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Colonia M. 24%, so Intercity are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Intercity and 1.1 for Colonia M. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Intercity are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Colonia M.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Intercity vs Colonia M. Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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