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Orihuela vs Getafe B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Group 5 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Orihuela

PPG 1.19 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Getafe B

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-110.2%0-27.0%0-33.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.2%1-112.5%1-28.5%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.7%2-17.7%2-25.2%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.3%3-13.2%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 45.5% 2.20 -30.0%

Draw 30.1% 32.3% 3.10 -6.7%

Away win 38.1% 33.9% 2.95 +12.4%

Over 2.5 47.9% 50.0% 2.00 -4.2%

Over 3.5 26.2% 29.2% 3.42 -10.4%

BTTS 54.5% 55.6% 1.80 -1.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.5%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.5%

#3 1–2 8.5%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 2–1✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orihuela1.2

Getafe B1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ORIHUELA · PPG 1.19

GETAFE B · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.19), Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Orihuela (H) 31.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -30.0%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.7%

Getafe B (A) 38.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orihuela face Getafe B in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orihuela a 32% chance, the draw 30% and Getafe B 38%, so Getafe B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Orihuela and 1.4 for Getafe B (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orihuela are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.19 for Getafe B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Orihuela vs Getafe B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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