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Conquense vs Tenerife B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Group 5 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Conquense

PPG 2.13 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Tenerife B

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.1%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.6%1-110.1%1-25.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.2%3-16.5%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-15.1%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% — — —

Draw 28.2% — — —

Away win 24.8% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 35.7% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.5%

H 47% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0✓ 9.6%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Conquense2.0

Tenerife B1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CONQUENSE · PPG 2.13

TENERIFE B · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.13) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Conquense (H) 47.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tenerife B (A) 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Conquense face Tenerife B in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Conquense a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Tenerife B 25%, so Conquense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Conquense and 1.0 for Tenerife B (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Conquense are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.75 for Tenerife B. This match finished 1-0.

Conquense vs Tenerife B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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